Lockdown works. It slowed COVID-19 in UK, says expert. Stay home.



The infection rate of COVID-19 has been increased to 3 from 2.5 (R0) by scientists at the Imperial College London.

“We are revising our central, best estimate of the reproduction number to something on the order of 3 or a little bit above rather than about a 2.5 level,” notes professor Neil Ferguson whose interviews FPMag has featured frequently in coverage of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Proof that lockdown (social distancing) works

Prof. Ferguson sees “more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures applied this week [in the United Kingdom], because the higher the reproduction number is, the more intensive the controls need to be to achieve suppression of the epidemic.”

Additionally, says Dr. Ferguson,  the rate of growth of the epidemic is “faster than we expected from early data in China,”


by Micheal John


Mitigation strategy scenarios for Great Britain  showing critical care (ICU) bed requirements. The black line shows the unmitigated epidemic. The green line shows a mitigation strategy incorporating closure of schools and universities; orange line shows case isolation; yellow line shows case isolation and household quarantine; and the blue line shows case isolation, home quarantine and social distancing of those aged over 70. The blue shading shows the 3-month period in which these interventions are assumed to remain in place. From Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020

 

“In the UK, we can see some early signs of slowing in some indicators. Less so in deaths because deaths are lagged by long time from when the measures came into force.

“But we look at the numbers of new hospital admissions today,” notes Professor Ferguson, “for instance, that does seem to be slowing down a little bit now. It’s not yet plateaued as the numbers are increasing each day but the rate of that increase has slowed.

“We see similar patterns in a number of European countries.”

Dr. Neil FergusonPhoto Credit: Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

The picture and its story: Prof. Neil-Ferguson of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) at Imperial College London, has done the foremost modeling projections of the COVID-19 outbreak. Read if you wish, Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020

Dr. Ferguson previously suggested to British parliamentarians that “fatalities would probably be unlikely to exceed about 20,000 with effectively a lockdown, a social distancing strategy.”

Now that Britain has done the lockdown, Ferguson says COVID-19 has been slowed. Watch the video interview:

 

 


Latest Statistics


June 6, 2020

GMT 05-06-2020 Time: 22:53: In all there have been 6,863,653 reported COVID-19 cases of which 232 territories report 3,199,357 active cases with 3,266,845 recoveries and 397,465 deaths.

All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation

©The RINJ Foundation 2020--#Singapore-SK-HUK-77 Wash your hands frequently. RINJ is with Civil Society Partners for Human Solidarity against COVID-19

Sources for this statistical data.

The following sources are available to readers. Additionaly FPMag and The Nurses Without Borders make direct contact and interview colleagues and sources close to the information around the world to track events and statistics. Information about China comes from the official website of the National Health and Health Commission and from direct contact with health and other officials, patients, doctors and nurses.

  1. United Kingdon COVID-19
  2. Coronavirus in Scotland
  3. The People’s Republic of China
  4. Canadian Department of Health
  5. US Centers for Disease Control
  6. United States Food and Drug Administration
  7. Hong Kong Global Tracking (PDF)
  8. Philippines COVID-19 Tracker
  9. Iran News Agency
  10. Govt. of Ireland
  11. Australia DoH
  12. Australia Public Information (PDF)
  13. Ministry of Health, Singapore
  14. Ministry of Health and Welfare, South Korea
  15. Province of Ontario, Canada CoronaVirus Info
  16. Province of Ontario, News Room
  17.  WHO
  18. Government of New Zealand
  19. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
  20. US Washington State Health Department
  21. New York State
  22. Prime Minister’s Office of Malaysia COVID-19 Update Report