Erdogan lost Putin trust. Analysts agree but repair under way



Elena Panina, Director, Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies in Russia is speaking out of turn according to sources in Russia.

Ms. Panina has slammed Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Türkiye in the most diplomatic manner possible but still, leads her dissertation with “Erdoğan has lost Putin’s trust.”

The consummate stateman, Vladimir Putin delivered a star-quality reception for his long-time associate in regional affairs, Recep Erdoğan.

But unless it is fixed with significant change, Russia is out of the July 2022 time-limited grain deal. This July 2022 panacea was a flop in the eyes of civil society humanitarians at street level, most of whom agree with Russia inasmuch as grains did not reach those in need and profiteers bagged the lot for a small few rich countries in the EU. The deal was signed by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN to allow the safe export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, which was blocked due to the USA proxy war in Ukraine.

Trust is earnedAfter Russian-Turkish talks, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin waves goodbye to President Erdoğan, a man who broke a high-level trust that could have fed millions in Africa. Instead it fed the pockets of a corrupt global leadership.  Photo: Sergei Karpukhin, TASS. Art, cropping, enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto / Feminine-Perspective-Magazine


The disappointment in the so-called UN/Türkiye brokered grain deal is widespread. RINJ Women working in remote areas like the Philippines, where mass malnutrition is taking its toll, are expressing dismay at the outcome of the failed “grain deal” which fed parts of Europe and filled brokers pockets with cash.

“Prices for basic food staples have gone through the roof. Africa is starving. Southeast Asia is starving.  The politicians don’t see this because they are well fed and living in mansions. But we see the crisis and hold dying children in our eyes as we help them stay alive,” explains Karinna Angeles.

Erdogan’s “special mission to Russia” failed because as Russia scholars frequently claim, “Trust is earned by deeds.”

“When the 2022 grain deal grain went to speculators from Europe and the USA, and not to the poor countries of Africa and Asia, President Erdoğan who acted as the guarantor of the previous ‘grain deal’ failed his commitment to ship grains to most needy nations, particularly Africa which has been slammed by the effects of the climate crisis. And also, this happened when the Ukraine/USA side took advantage of the grain corridor for attacks on Russia. So Putin’s phrase, “This can’t be tolerated any longer” didn’t even apply to Ukraine, but to Erdogan, argues Ms. Panina.

Putin said that Moscow had practically agreed on grain with a number of African states (without any help from Ankara).

That Qatar may be fully ready to support the deal with financial guarantees and control of deliveries to the countries (because the Turks are not trusted say Russian scholars). And there are more than enough mediators on the Ukrainian issue: China and the African Union are there. Erdogan is just one of many approaching the Kremlin.

“The meeting between Messrs. Erdoğan and Putin in Sochi showed that the president of Türkiye has lost Moscow’s trust,” said Ms. Panina in a response to the iconic meeting of leaders which began 4 September in Sochi and the talks that have continued past today.

The Russian side at the talks was represented at highest level by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Deputy Prime Minister – Russian Co-Chair of the Mixed Intergovernmental Russian-Turkish Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation Alexander Novak.

Additionally, on the Russian team were Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office – Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov; presidential aides Maxim Oreshkin and Yury Ushakov; Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu; Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev; Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina; Director of the Federal Service for Military Technical Cooperation Dmitry Shugayev; CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Management Company Kirill Dmitriev; and Director General of the State Atomic Energy Corporation, Rosatom, who is Alexei Likhachev.

“We agreed to hold this meeting long ago, but this is our first personal meeting since the elections in Türkiye. I have already had the pleasure of congratulating you on the election results, and I would like to do so again during our personal meeting, although several months have already passed,” said President Putin as he welcomed the Türkiye delegation.

The parties still work toward a grain agreement but this time using Russia’s terms which officials say must lead to grains being shipped to more needy nations where people have the greatest dearth of food.

Photo: Sergei Karpukhin, TASS. Art, cropping, enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto / Feminine-Perspective-Magazine

Excerpts. Despite criticisms and disenchantment among scholarly elite in Moscow, Mr. Putin stressed the very strong relationship between Russia and Turkey


“…During the discussion of bilateral economic ties, we were pleased to note the continued growth of trade. In 2022, it increased by 86 percent and reached a record-breaking 62 billion US dollars, though some estimates give an even bigger figure, while in the first half of this year it increased another 4 percent.There is a trend towards wider use of national currencies – the ruble and the lira – in trade. Thus, the share of the dollar and the euro in mutual transactions is consistently decreasing. Our respective central banks are working closely to develop a correspondent network between the financial and lending institutions of both countries.

“Russian-Turkish cooperation in the energy sector is of a genuinely strategic nature. Rosatom continues to build Turkiye’s first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu. It will consist of four power units of Russian design with a total capacity of 4,800 MW. Approximately 25,000 Russian and Turkish nuclear specialists, engineers and technicians are working day and night to ensure that the first power unit is launched next year.

“In April, Russian nuclear fuel was sent to Akkuyu, and the nuclear power plant received the official status of a nuclear facility. This status was granted by the IAEA. Thus, Turkiye has joined the club of countries with peaceful nuclear technology.

“Our countries also enjoy close interaction in gas supplies. Last year, Russia delivered 21.5 billion cubic metres of gas through the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines to Turkiye. In January-August 2023, it delivered over 10 billion cubic metres of gas.

“I want to emphasize that Russia has always been and will be a reliable, responsible gas supplier. We will continue to provide the Turkish economy with this cheap but highly efficient and environmentally friendly fuel. Moreover, we are ready to export gas to third countries that are interested in it through Turkiye.

“To that end, we have suggested creating a regional gas hub in Turkiye. Gazprom has submitted a draft road map for the project to BOTAS. The plan includes creating a joint working group, agreeing on a legal regulatory framework for hub activity, and developing the processes for the trade and transfer of imported gas…” said Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin in Monday.