COVID-19 Hospitalizations in Canada are again a capacity challenge to Healthcare

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“Three significant respiratory health threats to Canadians suggest masking up now,” say doctors at the Civil Society Partners against Disease, the restructured COVID-19 biostatistical team in Singapore.

  1. SARS-CoV-2 (causing COVID-19) is surging and deaths from COVID-19 are again climbing in several provinces. Across Canada, hospitalizations have climbed to 2021 levels at 4700 beds in all of Canada on 12.12.2023. Practitioners urge masking up and getting booster vaccinations. The latest booster vaccines are statistically showing very good outcomes.
  2. Influenza is at a heightened part of its annual curve. Vaccination and N-95 masking is strongly urged.
  3. Respiratory Infections including Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV) and a bacterial pneumonia caused by mycoplasma pnemoniae bacteria are infecting North Americans in significant numbers. Infants and older adults will require close attention as they are more likely to develop severe cases. Pneumonia can take a bad turn at any time during its course for anyone. Consult with your healthcare provider upon noticing any symptoms resembling pneumonia. There are numerous other forms of pneumonia and respiratory diseases circulating in the post-pandemic period.

Signs and symptoms of pneumonia may include:

  • Chest pain when you breathe or cough.
  • Confusion or changes in mental awareness (in adults aged 65 and older).
  • Cough, which may produce phlegm.
  • Fatigue.
  • Fever, sweating and shaking chills.
  • Lower than normal body temperature (in adults older than age 65 and people with weak immune systems).
  • Nausea, vomiting or diarrhea.
  • Shortness of breath.

According to the Mayo Clinic, “Pneumonia can range in seriousness from mild to life-threatening. It is most serious for infants and young children, people older than age 65, and people with health problems or weakened immune systems.”

Statement, December 14, 2023 | Ottawa, ON | Public Health Agency of Canada.

Statement from the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada on Respiratory Illness Season

“Respiratory illness season is well underway in Canada. While respiratory infections can occur year-round, it is common to see a significant increase in the fall and winter months. For some areas where the health care system is currently at capacity, these elevated or increasing levels of respiratory illness are already posing significant challenges to hospitals. As a result, it is especially important that we all take steps to protect ourselves and our families at this time of year, including during the holiday season.

“The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) continues to assess the levels of respiratory viruses across Canada and provides weekly national updates. While there is variability across the country, multiple viruses, including influenza (flu), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 are circulating at the same time. On November 25, 2023, PHAC indicated that flu season in Canada had officially begun. As of the week ending December 2, 2023, RSV and flu activity continued to increase in Canada but remained within expected levels for this time of year.

“For COVID-19, at a national level, the percent of laboratory tests coming back positive remains relatively high. Additionally, some provinces and territories are seeing increases in COVID-19 activity, including to high and very high levels in parts of the country. However, trends in a number of indicators, including wastewater surveillance, vary by region. It is important for people in Canada to consult their local public health authorities for the most up to date information on respiratory virus activity in their region… [continue reading]”  Statement from the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada on Respiratory Illness Season – Canada.ca

Hospitalizations in Canada due to COVID-19 infection are rising significantly, enough to put considerable stress on the Canadian health care system.

Canada COVID-19 Hospitalizations

2 Dec 2024 COVID-19 Data for Canada from CSPaD

Population: 41,572,044 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCases DeathsCuredActive
Reported:4,964,63060,362 1.2% CFR4,878,11226,156
Estimate:27,454,40478,470 *0.29% IFR26,975,959144,643

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 27,454,404 (66.04% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate: (IFR) is likely around 0.29%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2024-09-20 are estimated to be 79,618 Using estimated IFR of 0.29%. Global average 1.58% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR

79,618 (0.29% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

78470 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 78470 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA have Infection Fatality Rates close to global averages but since vaccine booster-rates have dropped, CFR in both countrioes is climbing slightly above global averages. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports no longer updated. See Archives to 5 March 2023