The impact on Dnipro in Ukraine that many people have seen by now was not an explosive attack but simply the kinetic mass of the MIRVs slamming Earth. Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) were originally developed in the early 1960s to permit a missile to deliver multiple nuclear warheads to different targets. In contrast to a traditional missile, which carries one warhead, MIRVs can carry multiple warheads according to the Center for Arms Control.
Several of FPM’s expert advisors reviewing the Oreshnik Dnipro-strike video last week suspected this. FPM could not immediately confirm the suspicions. Then two military sources dodged the question and made comments to say that we were on the right track. Now Sputnik International writers have come up with the same thesis.
In a final digging for information, FPM was told by a scientist who would not come to the phone but via his wife said while requesting anonymity that “of course there was no warhead. It was an opportunistic test. The Commander-in-Chief needed something to show, you understand that, Micheal, and we needed a test target so why not. The test was to be without warhead. Why spend our budget. The more money we save the bigger the celebration. (He laughed.) We were confident in the project, but the goal warhead load is something like our new, light, megaton nuclear warhead which we will soon test.”
There’s several “different ways to make the Oreshnik even more powerful,” retired Russian army colonel and veteran military observer Viktor Litovkin told Sputnik, doing a bit of brainstorming after President Putin’s remarks on making the missile even more deadly.
Oreshnik two-stage variant in launch. Russian military image. Art, cropping, enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto / Feminine-Perspective-Magazine
“First of all, realize please that it can become—with a lot of modification—a long range intercontinental ballistic missile, not necessarily a medium-range one, by adding another full rocket stage,” Litovkin said, noting that in its present form, Oreshnik reportedly has two stages. [Translated]
“Second, the power of Oreshnik’s nuclear warheads could be increased from current existing warheads,” the observer said, citing possible existing yield between 450 and 900 kilotons total for the missile and its six MIRV warheads and noting that new warheads are under development with a timeline yet unknown.
“In Soviet days,” Litovkin recalled, “the R-36 Voevoda ICBM had up to 10 MIRVs, each with a 750-kiloton strike potential. Nowadays, when newer missiles like Oreshnik are far more accurate, landing meters or tens of meters rather than hundreds of meters from their targets, it’s unclear whether such modifications are necessary. It’s up to engineers and the Russian political and military leadership to decide what they wish scientists to create,” Litovkin said.
“The power of the Oreshnik missile’s conventional charge is flexible,” the observer pointed out, saying it remains unclear whether the Oreshnik that struck the defence factory in Dnepropetrovsk was carrying any charge at all, or relied solely on kinetic force to destroy the factory and burrow tens of meters deep into the ground. The fiery spectacle was the shielded mass burning the surrounding air on reentry at Mach 10 or more in a near vertical decent through the final distances of atmosphere to the target. The fiery spectacle increases as the air density is higher at lower altitudes and the projectiles slow down in the thicker air.
Finally, when discussing any potential modifications to a missile like the Oreshnik, “it’s always important to remember the concept that the target must be more expensive than the projectile used against it. That is, you don’t shoot sparrows with a cannon,” Litovkin emphasized. Therefore, it’s not really clear whether Oreshnik is in need of any modifications at all.
Vladimir Purin in a recent speech said that ‘Oreshnik speed is equivalent to that of a meteorite,’ thus emphasizing its immense impact.
Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin revealed at the recent Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit some new details about the operation of Russia’s Oreshnik missile. The details help confirm FPM editorial staffs’ and sources’ suspicions that the attack on Dnipro was purely a kinetic mass attack and not high explosive which was first suspected.
For example, “the Oreshnik works exactly as its creators intended in terms of the accuracy and effectiveness of the missile system,” the Russian President said as he also compared the missile to a meteorite which is basically what the test proved if indeed the MIRVs were kinetic masses only.
“The destruction caused by the Oreshnik is very serious, with the missile able to penetrate 3-4 levels of reinforced floors in a target,” said Mr. Putin
“In the context of the presence of explosive material in the Oreshnik,” President Putin clarified that tests are ongoing to perfect the system and improve its capabilities, dodging the issue that the MIRVs were indeed only kinetic mass.