Sum of 1B SARS2 infections, 2M deaths are new global milestones

Estimate: global reported cases + unreported asymptomatic & mild infections total: 1,021,793,518 while deaths exceed 2 million (248 territories plus naval/commercial sea-going vessels).

The Civil Society (NGO) Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19 tracking team in Singapore, led by biostatistician Fred Harris reports that, “of significance there are several models done by universities around the world which argued the COVID-19 pandemic will yield about 600 million cases including the asymptomatic and mild cases.”

  • That number is now estimated at 1,021,793,518 with an estimated IFR of 0.255 %,” says Harris.
  • “The reported data is 93,570,821 confirmed cases in 248 countries/territories, 2,001,554 deaths at a CFR of 2.139% and 26,335,713 cases currently active, not yet resolved by cure or death; and
  • “another milestone of considerable concern,” says Harris, “is the US excess deaths exceeding half a million this week.”

“We have continually compared our estimates from our algorithm to other models and the accuracy has been confirmed within reasonable margins of error. This also confirms the suspicion that the death rate is nowhere near as high as the raw reported numbers indicate but we worry that after a period of 12 to 18 months from the start of the pandemic, massive numbers of reinfections will have the cell damage of the initial course of the disease as a comorbid underlying chronic illness which might raise the infection fatality rates. We don’t know what will happen in this regard but it is a widespread worry. Reinfection is having bad outcomes at a higher rate.

“After continually running the algorithm since the early outbreak we [the partners’ tracking team] recently decided to publish the data and it seems safe to say the estimated total number of cases including asymptomatic and mild courses of the disease around the world is 1,021,793,518.

America leads the world by far in Active Covid-19 Cases

  1. At publication time there were 26,335,713 active COVID-19 cases across 248 nations and territories plus dozens of naval vessels and commercial ships.
  2. Of that 26.3 million, nearly nine million are Americans.
  3. This data indicates emergency-level stress on at least some US hospitals and American medical personnel.

“The graph below indicates the highest counts of active COVID-19 cases in the highest 25 countries.

A special note is that Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom do not accurately report patient recoveries in accordance with global standards and therefore their active case data is inaccurately high but it is what they each report it to be.

“This needs to be corrected,” say experts,  “because the number of active cases is the data that would be needed to manage a number of important resource requirements”.

In other words, “these numbers were not always so important, but now they are critical indicator points for pandemic management,” notes Harris who went on to say that it is possible these nations keep records to themselves and do not publish them for public consumption.

Highest Count of Current ACTIVE COVID-19 Cases
This graph will update in real time as will the numbers and data below. The data in the above paragraphs of this article are referring to teh publication data.

Live Data Updating hourly. 15 Jul 2024